时隔3年，亚马逊于12.12日在深圳会展中心举办了疫情后的第一场峰会，现场灯光四溢，展会摊位人头耸动，官方也很给面子，数位大佬出席共襄盛举，总之好一派热闹景象。lee同相熟的亚马逊招商经理聊了聊，据说参加此次深圳峰会第一天就有2W+卖家，线上蝴蝶号估计还有百万人次观看（数据未经证实），会展中心6789几个馆人声鼎沸，交流基本靠吼。在这个糟心的2023年即将结束的时候，似乎每个人都在急切的证明自己没有虚度这一年，于是在展会各个角落冲出来给你派名片的一众服务商急了，急于年底KPI的冲刺和明年新客户的开发；卖家急了，急于搞清楚亚马逊明年还是否值得再投入；亚马逊自己也急了，急于证明你大爷还是你大爷，只要我不急，你们卖家都不要急。

言归正传，在各方角色粉墨登场的这几天，12.12峰会的巅峰对话依然是浓墨重彩的一笔。lee在线上看了一遍直播回放，受益良多，觉得有必要开个贴来仔细解读这次对话，试图和大家一起探究亚马逊在2024年的野望。由于对话将近半小时，因此Lee决定分为上下两篇进行解读，本篇为上篇。

下面简单介绍下这场对话：
主题：科技新浪潮下的全球电商发展之道  
嘉宾：Eric Broussard（亚马逊全球副总裁，第三方国际业务负责人）

 
和Cindy Tai（亚马逊全球副总裁，亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁）

这2人的对话从当天14.05分开始到14.33分结束，基本形式是cindy代表卖家发问，eric回复。Lee觉得这是主战略发布会最有价值的对话了，摘录重点如下并逐段解读，理解如果有了偏差，敬请斧正 (直播的翻译字幕实在看不下去，Lee自己听译了一部分，语速太快的地方用软件翻译了一部分，最后汇总改了下语法，可能和原文有出入，Lee英语就是刚过四级的水平，大家将就看吧）：

Cindy: So, Eric, what do you think some of the latest e-commerce trends that our global sellers should know about? 

Eric：Maybe we should start with what's NOT changing, and what's NOT changing is that all customers everywhere…… across the world are looking for more selections, lower prices and more convenience. These are the 3 pillars of our strategy, and more than ever, customers are very sensitive to this. We really like these principles because they're really unlikely to change over time.

Lee的解读：第一个问题问关于电子商务未来趋势的，Eric很聪明，没有接这个话题，先说了一段消费在未来不会发生变化的三个原则，注意这里他换了2个概念：
把 最新趋势 换成  不会随时间变换的原则
把 电子商务领域 换成 消费者关心的领域

所以大佬之所以成为大佬是有原因的，很轻松就把一个非常大的不知道从何说起的话题，找到一个很小很精准的切入点去展开，不会被提问者带节奏牵着鼻子走。

那么他回答Cindy的问题了嘛？这一段好像回答了，好像又没回答，简称：如答。
以上是作为行业外人士的视角开个玩笑，外行看热闹，内行看门道，我们作为卖家，还是要仔细去看下这位大佬的发言，因为这一段在整个对话中起到了提纲挈领的作用，后续大篇幅的论证都是围绕这个主题展开的。

划重点：
1.消费者永远追寻，且不以时间推移而发生变化，且亚马逊认同的消费三原则：

• 更低价——lower prices
• 更方便——more convenience
• 更多选择——more selections

2. more than ever, customers are very sensitive to this ——消费下行的环境，消费者对上述三原则愈加敏感和在意了。

ok，下一段Eric继续展开论证：
You know what I'm saying? It's Not because we're going to be launching in a new country that customers going to come to us to say: “Woooooow…… Your prices are too low" That is just not going to happen. 
 
I've been very fortunate to be on Amazon for a really long time, and when I joined back to 98, we already was the earth's largest selection and I just want to ensure that you all know, this is still day one, we still need a lot more selection. An example of this is the B2B segment, the fastest growing segment at 35 billion dollars in sales across the world. We all feel it's completely Day One. Thirty five billion dollars? ——We're barely scratching the surface of all the customer needs across the world.

Lee的解读：好吧，Eric也怕我们看不懂，所以用Amazon自己的历程来举例：他在1998年加入亚马逊的时候，亚马逊已经是世界最大的零售平台了。但是他们依然会把心态归零，认为自己是创业第一天（插一句，Day One这个概念是光头Jeff提出的，且在亚马逊企业文化里反复被提及）。更为具体的，他提到B2B业务是今年增长最快的业务（350亿美元），但是他们依然认为是Day One, 这只是全世界消费体系下的冰山一角。

所以这段跟上面的消费三原则有什么关系？
Lee认为这一段和前文关系的连接在这一句：this is still day one, we still need a lot more selection

划重点：亚马逊在20年前已经在消费领域做到一家独大了，但是他们仍然认为这还不够，依然需要为消费者提供更多的选择。即使是现在高速发展的B2B业务，他们也怀着谦卑的Day One心态认为做的不够，所以这里Eric的潜台词是：作为一手掌握卖家信息，一手掌握买家需求的亚马逊，在撮合交易的掮客角色扮演中，其实一直秉持一个观点：人的欲望是没有尽头的，消费者想要的选择也是无穷无尽的，20年前他们就明白这个道理了，贯穿到现在，始终如一。

说到这里，插个题外话，Lee经常听到有人动不动就嚷嚷要具备底层逻辑，底层思维这些话，打广告也要明白底层，作图写listing也要明白底层，Lee深信一点，拼命强调的正是你不具备的，每天喊底层那只能证明你从来没有扎根到泥土里，亚马逊20年前就洞悉了消费者的“底层需求”，但他们不是喊出来，而是靠不停地自我更新迭代去满足消费者需求的。

终归是知易行难，做比说重要。

ok，我们继续看下一段：
At the same time customers are more and more looking for quality and value. Lower prices, greater quality branded products will come back to that are really important to our customers. This is why we invested so much in delivering holiday events with millions of deals to benefit customers and it's you know, it's always important to provide customers with a great deal but he even more so in the current economy. These events prime day and black friday cyber monday have been our largest ever demonstrating the continued moment in our business. Chinese sellers had a huge contribution to these. You see a lot of these examples behind me, but to take a couple，Baleaf（百乐弗）, a Chinese sports appeal achieve a remarkable 110% increasing in their sales gowth in the US, but not only the US, also in Europe, in Japan, in Australia I mentioned Baleaf because our next speaker, Russell, will talk about what tools and and advertising strategies they implementeded to build that global brand across the country. So I thought it was very relevant to the discussion. Another one is Revopoint-3D（知象光电） A large 3d scanner business. Not only did they grow their sales in b2b by 170% across the year, they also entered the b2b business and started growing that segment as well, contributing to their diversification and providing all to be customers better, better products.
 
Lee的解读：前段对话中Eric阐述了消费三原则中的more selections，这段继续解释Lower Price原则，这段很好理解，亚马逊设计了这么多的促销活动就是为了在当下经济环境中刺激消费，促进购买。有意思的是，他在这里直接点名了在黑五，网一等大促活动中中国卖家的“贡献”，结合Lee在如果亚马逊有康波周期，我们目前处于波峰还是底谷？一文里总结的黑五网一顺周期卖家的表现，就差直接念身份证号了：
 
顺周期产品在黑五的表现：
响应sb广告经理的要求，黑五前开品牌，展示， ASIN定位 TV通通开启，acos爆了我据理力争，不慌，这是蓄客阶段；
顺便给个1刀新增一个乞丐组平衡下acos；
大促前3天广告预算从1倍递增1.5倍，大促2倍；
大促当天先跑黑五专享，今年标志跟LD一模一样，感觉白捡了500刀，心里美滋滋，顺便diss一下报了LD的傻鸟同事；
报了LD的心想我就是全村的希望，是人类之光，你们拿来炫耀的翻倍记录靠我carry，不说了我加预算去了；
做了DOTD的：手握日月摘星辰, 世间无我这般人

写到这里Lee不禁感慨，这轻飘飘的贡献二字，放在当下背景，恐怕是无数亚马逊中小卖家的一部血泪史，也是这个时代跨境从业者的一曲悲歌。或许在若干年以后，后人翻开这段历史一查，这历史没有年代，歪歪斜斜的每页上都写着“huge contribution”几个字。仔细看了半天，才从字缝里看出字来，满本都写着诸如“内卷”慈善”的字眼，最后，满篇满页都化成“吃人”两个字。

划重点：
1. it's always important to provide customers with a great deal but he even more so in the current economy.——亚马逊也承认，这个稀烂的经济环境里只有用更多更大额的deal来讨好消费者
2. Lower prices, greater quality branded products will come back to that are really important to our customers——价格不是消费者选你的唯一指标，低价+优质+品牌商品才是消费者首选
3. contributing to their diversification——再次提到多元化，对应更多选择

OK, 谈到这里，Eric关于Cindy第一个问题电商的最新趋势回答完毕。我们看Cindy的下一个问题：
 
Cindy: Yeah, yes for sure. We're very excited to see so many Chinese sellers in this past black friday event do so well. So, Eric, how's the e-commerce segment trending around the world?
感觉Cindy把第一个问题又问了一遍，可能也在提示Eric别在那吹水了，赶紧整点干货吧。
 
Eric: 2023 is turning to be a good year, especially in light of, you know, what we've seen in the past few years. You know we've seen a recovery of the consumer consumption across the world. Worldwide retail e commerce seems to be back to a more stable growth in 2023 after this UPS and down. I was just mentioning to give you just a couple numbers e commerce gross rates, a increase from 6.5% in 2022 to which was, you know, the lowest in five years to 8.9% in 2023 in the us at number 9.3% you know, and is expected to exceed 10% next year. So it's very reassuring and very energizing to see this back to more stable growth thatables, our sell sellers to more steadily build their business. These gross rates are just mentioned and you can see some of them behind me. They translate into very good opportunities for you as a seller community. In fact, worldwide e commerce retail transactions will reach 8 trillion US dollars in 2027. That's a ke of 8.6% from 2023 and these numbers make a lot of sense. Y​ou know, e commerce as a percentage of total retail sale is still very low. It's 15.6% in the US, 13% in the EU and something like 13.9% in Japan. So the room for growth is very true. It is really stupendous. 

Lee的解读：也许是Cindy的提示起了作用，Eric在这段赶紧展望一下未来告诉大家未来会更好。这一段有很多关于未来发展数据的预测，具体的数据Lee就不一一复述了，见重点
 
划重点：这段都是用预测来给卖家画饼，没有重点
。
。
。
。
。
开个玩笑啦，这里还是有几个数据值得看的：
1. Worldwide retail e commerce seems to be back to a more stable growth in 2023 after this UPS and down——这句话说的是运费的下调带来毛利率的上升，给全球电子商务市场的消费复苏带来契机。说实话Lee只能同意半句，因为运费下调给temu带来的契机一定是大于Amazon的
 
2. e commerce as a percentage of total retail sale is still very low. It's 15.6% in the US, 13% in the EU and something like 13.9% in Japan——Lee尤记得三年疫情的时候，当时很多人喊出疫情彻底改变了消费者的购物习惯，线下将会消亡，线上才是趋势，没想到理想很丰满现实很骨感，尽管电商取得了快速发展，在整个零售业的占比依然是弟中弟，线下消费才是是零售业的大头。或许导致亚马逊流量乏力的，不仅仅是来自temu等友商的蚕食，一部分的消费习惯重新转回线下也起到了推波助澜的作用。由此可见，习惯养成后所产生的惯性依赖是非常强大的。品牌在哪里，消费者就去哪里，不管它是在线上还是线下，这也许就是做品牌的意义所在吧。
 
很有意思的一个现象是，在北美，欧洲和日本这些发达国家，线上消费只有13%-15%的占比，大家猜下这个数字在中国是多少？
 
——2023年上半年，全国网上零售额达7.16万亿元，同比增长13.1%。其中，实物商品网上零售额6.06万亿元，增长10.8%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为26.6%
 
万万没想到，小丑竟是我自己，文明的灯塔，人类的希望屹立在世界东方。
 
另外，Lee有理由相信，基于我们国家冠绝全球的基础交通设施建设和便捷的移动端支付功能，才造就了中国如此高的线上消费比例，26.6%这个数字可能在全球都是排在#1（Lee猜的，没有验证），那么美国，欧洲再怎么发展线上（Lee不提日本是因为它在移动浪潮中已经掉队了，发展乏力），其实天花板也就是26.6%左右了，所以Eirc在这里挺鸡贼的，如果光说13.1%这个数字大家可能觉得离100%还有很大的发展空间，但实际路已经走了一半了，再翻一倍就已经到头了。
 
嗯，这一波，我们遥遥领先。
 
言归正传，我们再看Cindy的第三个问题：
Cindy：That's great. Sounds like there's a lot more growth opportunities for our sellers around the world now. We know that Amazon is very diversified, Eric, So sellers may wonder how important is the seller business for Amazon and also what are Amazon's key initiatives next year to help sellers succeed?
 
从这个问题开始触及核心了，直接问的是卖家业务对亚马逊的重要性和明年卖家成功的关键因素, 那么Eric的回复从这里开始也渐渐有了更多的干货(这段透露的玄机太多，以至于到处都是重点)：
 
Eric: sellers, you, play an absolutely critical role in delivering our visions of charges selection. You've really transformed the customer experience, our customer having an Amazon across the world. As russ mentioned earlier, we've got over near 2 million sellers worldwide providing this incredible array of products to consumers. As you mentioned as well, last quarter sellers presented the majority of the units purchased on Amazon over 60% or largest number ever. So that you know, should convince everyone that sort absolutely critically important to us. This is why we're continue to improving because this customer and seller experience to give you a sense of the investments. We've got over 28,000 people dedicated to the center business and every year we invest billions in logistics. And every year when invest billions in logistics tools, services, programs and teams to help our sellers get started, but also continue to grow business, when I of course, so some of the focus on 2024 will include creating new incremental business opportunities. b2b is an example I gave. You will talk a little bit more about international expansion which is another you know area of investment that's really, really exciting. Second will be innovating and providing new products and features to hand the seller oppression, excell science and efficiency. We want sellers to do more with less and we'll come back to a couple technologies were you know doubling down. Third we're going to help continues helping selllers lowering their cost and help them become more profitable. 
 
这段重点太多，直接划重点吧：
1. last quarter sellers presented the majority of the units purchased on Amazon over 60% or largest number ever——如果Lee理解的没错的话，这里的sellers是指的第三方卖家，也就是说，包含了VC，Amazon Basics等自营业务，依然占据了40%的业务量，Lee记得在去年年底就开始有传闻为了应对反垄断，亚马逊在缩减自营比例，亚马逊也采取了一些例如取消Amazon Accelerator（品牌加速器计划）等措施，然而雷声大雨点小，减了这么久，竟然还有40%，况且先砍的是加入了品牌加速器计划的这种“伪自营”第三方品牌，到今年8月份的时候，又砍了一批运营成绩不佳的自营品牌，你说Amazon在积极应对反垄断了吗？好像是的，你说实际效果怎么样呢？我们卖家估计还是一肚子苦水要说，随便举个例子，现在的Amazon Basics好像在流量垄断上更不要脸了。所以好像反垄断了，又好像没有，简称如反。
 
2. We've got over 28,000 people dedicated to the center business and every year we invest billions in logistics. And every year when invest billions in logistics tools——Lee听到这一段的时候心里真的凉了半截，光一个亚马逊物流就有2.8W员工（Lee估计还没算临时工和非全职员工进去），每年要投入数十亿美金研发费用，如果算上员工工资，亚马逊物流部门妥妥是个吞金兽，所以大家现在明白FBA fee为什么每年必涨了吧？羊毛出在羊身上，卖家都在割肉支持亚马逊做到更快的物流配送，给客人带来更好的口碑，但是这个口碑不是给到我们卖家的，而是给到Fullfillment by Amazon的，这种口碑反过来更加固了FBA的地位，从而让亚马逊更肆无忌惮的涨价——最终变成了：你用的每次FBA，都是FBA涨价的理由
 
3. b2b is an example I gave——注意这场对话中b2b已经出现N次了，重要的事情说三遍，这基本是在打明牌告诉我们B2B很重要，Lee大胆猜测亚马逊深耕C端这么多年，在C端增长渐渐触及天花板的时候，开始切入小B市场，明年一定有更多B2B的政策推出，鼓励我们卖家在B端市场去竞争
 
4. We want sellers to do more with less and we'll come back to a couple technologies were you know doubling down——这个字面意思是会用一系列的技术来让卖家的效率提升，光看这句可能摸不到头脑，但是结合Lee之前写的亚马逊老人如何看待2024年美国站物流费用和销售佣金调整和促销？ 里关于强推AWD+AGL的分析，很明显这就是亚马逊用所谓的全链路供应链服务来减少卖家筛选、沟通的成本，从而提升效率。一个卖家的一生，从摇篮到坟墓，亚马逊都给你包办好了，你只管无脑用服务，其他交给亚马逊就好。
 
5. helping selllers lowering their cost and help them become more profitable——参考上面同一篇帖子里的分析，FBA fee的下降是为数不多的好消息。
 
行文至此，Lee看了字数统计，已过5000，就在这里结束上篇的分析吧。下半场对话请继续关注Lee发布的 2023年亚马逊全球峰会深度解读特别篇之《巅峰对话：科技新浪潮下的全球电商发展之道 下》
 
未完待续